Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies among Smallholder Farmers in South-West Nigeria
Keywords:
Nigeria, smallholder farmers, farm income, adaptation, climate-smart agriculture, hydroclimateAbstract
Agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa is highly exposed to climate variability, yet micro-level evidence linking hydroclimatic exposure, farm income, and adaptation behaviour remains limited. This study examines associations among rainfall, temperature, farm-income patterns, and the adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices among 300 smallholder farmers in Oyo, Ondo, and Ekiti States, South-West Nigeria. Cross-sectional household data for the 2024 production year were matched with location-specific meteorological records. Descriptive and bivariate analyses were used to characterise climate-income patterns, while binary logistic regression estimated correlates of adopting at least one climate-smart practice. Mean annual rainfall was highest in Ondo (1,509.84 mm) and lowest in Oyo (1,305.98 mm), while adoption rates ranged from 21% in Oyo to 33% in Ondo. Within the observed data, rainfall showed a positive descriptive gradient with farm income and a positive multivariable association with adoption (β = 0.0035 per mm, p < 0.001; approximately OR = 1.42 per 100 mm). Temperature showed a negative but only marginally supported association with adoption (β = -0.1614, p = 0.064). Farm size, education, and IHS-transformed income were not independently significant after adjustment for climatic exposure and state fixed effects. Model discrimination was modest (AUC = 0.67); the reported 73% classification accuracy should be interpreted cautiously because it is approximately equal to the majority-class baseline implied by the sample adoption prevalence. The findings support integrated attention to water management, climate information, extension support, and accessible adaptation finance, while the cross-sectional design precludes causal claims about climate impacts
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